8:20 AM | Strong thunderstorm late tomorrow then Irene this weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warm, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, a bit more humid compared to recent nights, lows in the mid 60’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, very warm and humid with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that may even reach severe levels to include heavy downpours, upper 80’s

Friday

Partly sunny, still rather humid, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or at night, mid 80’s

Saturday

Increasing clouds, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day or at night depending on the track of Irene, potential exists for substantial rain amounts and strong winds, near 80

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, tropical humidity with the threat for more showers and thunderstorms, potential exists for substantial rain amounts and strong winds, upper 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, breezy, still humid, highs in the low 80’s

Discussion

Hurricane Irene continues to spin its way through the Bahamas. It is continuing to slowly strengthen and has now reached major hurricane status. My current thinking has Irene making landfall in eastern North Carolina on Saturday - probably as a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) – and then it is likely to head to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay by late Saturday night. By Sunday afternoon, Irene will likely be just off the New Jersey coastline on its way up to eastern New England while maintaining category 1 hurricane status. This potential track is similar to Hurricane Floyd during September of 1999 and also similar to the track of the “great hurricane of 1944” (unnamed) – both storms dumped significant amounts of rain on coastal sections as well as into some inland sections. Heavy rain and strong winds are possible in the Mid-Atlantic region from Irene in the late Saturday through Sunday time period; especially, to the east of the District on towards the shoreline. Hurricane force winds are likely to be recorded along coastal sections from North Carolina to Maine. Meanwhile, before we feel the effects of Irene, a strong frontal system is likely to cause some more heavy downpours around here late tomorrow or tomorrow night. Stay tuned for updates.

Video

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuLl4Ze3TCI