1:30 PM | Accumulating snow with an Arctic blast

Discussion

A complicated weather picture for the next 36 hours or so that will take place in two different phases. Phase 1 will take place tonight and tomorrow morning and it will be “marginally cold” here in the NYC metro region with a brief period of rain or a mix of rain and snow before the precipitation changes to accumulating snow. Phase 2 will take place tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night and it will feature much colder air, strong N to NW winds, and occasional snow showers that could add to the morning snowfall accumulations amounts. Here are the specifics:

As a storm begins to take shape off the SE US coast early this evening, precipitation will move into the region perhaps in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix for a brief time before a changeover to snow showers. By later tonight, steadier snow will develop and continue into the morning hours and that will wind down by midday as the coastal storm lifts off to the northeast.

In the afternoon and evening, the powerful Arctic front will become the major player and we’ll see a dramatic pickup in the winds that will start howling out of the N to NW, temperatures will drop from morning highs in the 30’s, and there will be additional snow showers. In fact, the afternoon and evening snow showers can include brief heavier bursts of snow that can add to the morning accumulation amounts. Temperatures will drop through the 20’s tomorrow evening and will bottom out in the teens by Sunday morning. Total snowfall accumulations by later tomorrow night will be on the order of 2-4 inches. This total includes the steadier morning snow associated with the coastal low as well as the additional small accumulations from the “Arctic-blast associated” afternoon and evening snow showers. The rest of Sunday will remain very cold and windy with highs struggling to reach 30 degrees. It appears that this active pattern will continue for at least the next seven to ten days with more accumulating snow possible on Tuesday and, in the “speculation department”, perhaps a big storm during the President’s Day weekend.

I told you it was complicated.