3:00 PM | ***The threat continues for a major east coast storm on Wednesday night and Thursday with substantial snow and ice accumulations possible; especially, in the northern and western suburbs***

Euro_thurs_AM [European model forecast map for early Thursday; courtesy College of DuPage Meteorology]

Discussion

The threat for a major east coast storm continues for the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame and significant snow and ice accumulations are possible in the Mid-Atlantic region. There is likely to be a battle zone pretty close to the I-95 corridor between colder air and primarily snow to the west and slightly warmer air with snow changing to mixed precipitation to the east. The greatest chance for substantial snow and ice in the Mid-Atlantic region is from the northern and western suburbs of the big cities (DC-to-Boston) inland to the Appalachian Mountains.

Strong surface low pressure will track along the Gulf coast on Wednesday and then up the eastern seaboard on Thursday likely taking a track from around Norfolk, Virginia to near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The Southeast US will likely experience a major ice storm on Tuesday night and Wednesday in, for example, cities like Atlanta, Georgia and Charlotte, North Carolina. Interior sections of Virginia will likely get pounded with heavy snowfall from Wednesday night into Thursday. The computer models have come into somewhat better agreement on the idea of a strong coastal storm, but, once again, the GFS (NOAA) model is weaker and slightly farther to the southeast compared to some of the other models.

The Canadian model forecast map shows heavy snow in the region between DC, Philly and New York City as of Thursday morning (below). The European model has a powerful storm in eastern North Carolina as of Thursday morning (forecast map above). Stay tuned.

CMC_early_Thurs2

[Canadian model forecast map for early Thursday]