5:30 PM | Another down year in the US for major hurricanes and tornadoes

5:30 PM | Another down year in the US for major hurricanes and tornadoes

Whether you’re talking about major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes or tornadoes, there is good news this year for the US in that - similar to most recent years - these extreme weather-related events are down across the nation compared-to-normal.  In fact, in the case of tornadoes, we are on pace for one of the quietest years in the last decade and with respect to land falling major hurricanes in the US, an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era continues through yet another tropical season. 

7:00 AM | Cold rain developing later today and there can be some frozen precipitation in the northern and western suburbs

7:00 AM | Cold rain developing later today and there can be some frozen precipitation in the northern and western suburbs

Precipitation is advancing northeastward this morning from the Southeast US and should arrive here during the early-to-mid afternoon hours. This moisture will encounter some cold air in the Northeast US that is currently being anchored by strong high pressure.  As a result, there can be some sleet and/or snow to mix in at times in the northern and western suburbs and a few inches of snow can accumulate during this event in the Poconos, NE PA and NW NJ. Low pressure headed for the Ohio Valley early today will transfer its energy to a newly forming coastal low near the NC/VA border and this will become the primary system later today. The precipitation will end late tonight from southwest-to-northeast across the Philly metro region. After a bit of a milder day on Wednesday, the coldest air of the season so far will arrive later Thursday.  On Friday, temperatures will do no better than the 30’s for highs, the wind will generate even lower wind chill values, and there can be some snow shower activity. The below-normal cold will continue through the upcoming weekend and it looks like there will be additional Arctic blasts into the eastern US over the next few weeks. 

7:00 AM | Cold rain develops later today with some frozen precipitation possible at times to the N and W...Arctic air arrives at week's end

7:00 AM | Cold rain develops later today with some frozen precipitation possible at times to the N and W...Arctic air arrives at week's end

Precipitation is advancing northeastward this morning from the Southeast US and should arrive here during the late afternoon hours. This moisture will encounter some cold air in the Northeast US that is currently being anchored by strong high pressure.  As a result, there can be some sleet and/or snow to mix in at times in the northern and western suburbs and a few inches of snow can accumulate during this event in the Poconos, NE PA and NW NJ. Low pressure headed for the Ohio Valley early today will transfer its energy to a newly forming coastal low near the NC/VA border and this will become the primary system later today. The precipitation will end late tonight from southwest-to-northeast across the NYC metro region. After a bit of a milder day on Wednesday, the coldest air of the season so far will arrive later Thursday.  On Friday, temperatures will do no better than the 30’s for highs, the wind will generate even lower wind chill values, and there can be some snow shower activity. The below-normal cold will continue through the upcoming weekend and it looks like there will be additional Arctic blasts into the eastern US over the next few weeks. 

7:00 AM | Cold rain today and some sleet could mix in at the onset

7:00 AM | Cold rain today and some sleet could mix in at the onset

Precipitation is advancing northeastward this morning from the Southeast US and should arrive here during the mid-morning hours. This moisture will encounter some cold, dry air in the Northeast US that is currently being anchored by strong high pressure.  As a result, there can be some evaporative cooling at the onset of the precipitation in the lower part of the atmosphere and this could cause some sleet to mix in with the rain; especially, to the N and W of the District.  Low pressure headed for the Ohio Valley early today will transfer its energy to a newly forming coastal low near the NC/VA border and this will become the primary system later today. The precipitation will end later tonight from southwest-to-northeast across the metro region. After a bit of a milder day on Wednesday, the coldest air of the season so far will arrive later Thursday.  On Friday, temperatures will do no better than the 30’s for highs, the wind will generate even lower wind chill values, and there can be a few snow showers. The below-normal cold will continue through the upcoming weekend and it looks like there will be additional Arctic blasts into the eastern US over the next few weeks.

12:20 PM | *Some frozen precipitation possible with Tuesday's system to the N and W…coldest air mass yet arrives late in the week and more Arctic blasts will follow*

12:20 PM | *Some frozen precipitation possible with Tuesday's system to the N and W…coldest air mass yet arrives late in the week and more Arctic blasts will follow*

Low pressure will track northeastward on Tuesday towards the Mid-Atlantic region and will ultimately transfer its energy to an intensifying secondary low near the North Carolina/Virginia coastline.  At the same time, strong high pressure situated over the Northeast US will be reluctant to give up its ground on Tuesday as it anchors a cold air mass.  As a result, moist air pushing to the northeast will overrun the cold air in place and evaporative cooling will cause low-level temperatures to drop at the onset and then dynamical cooling will cause upper-level temperatures to drop later in the event. The end result of this unfolding scenario is that some frozen precipitation in the form of sleet and/or snow is liable to fall at times during this event across some of the northern and western suburbs of the big cities along I-95.  Precipitation will taper off from SW-to-NE late Tuesday night/early Wednesday as the coastal low moves out to sea.  After that, the coldest air mass so far this season will head our way for the late week and weekend.  This late week Arctic blast will very likely be just the first of many in the eastern US over the next few weeks.  

7:00 AM | Weak system pushes away this morning...a stronger system arrives later Tuesday

7:00 AM | Weak system pushes away this morning...a stronger system arrives later Tuesday

One system pushes away from the region this morning and then another one with more available moisture arrives on Tuesday. In fact, tomorrow's system is likely to generate 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rainfall in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC primarily during the PM hours.  Later in the week, much colder air pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures on Friday, Saturday and Sunday are likely to generally be held down in the 30's for highs.

7:00 AM | Weak system pushes away this morning...stronger system arrives on Tuesday

7:00 AM | Weak system pushes away this morning...stronger system arrives on Tuesday

One system pushes away from the region this morning and then another one with more available moisture arrives on Tuesday. In fact, tomorrow's system is likely to generate 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rainfall in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC primarily during the PM hours.  Later in the week, much colder air pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures on Friday, Saturday and Sunday are likely to generally be held down in the 30's for highs.

7:00 AM | Weak system pushes away this morning...a stronger system arrives later tomorrow

7:00 AM | Weak system pushes away this morning...a stronger system arrives later tomorrow

One system pushes away from the region this morning and then another one with more available moisture arrives on Tuesday. In fact, tomorrow's system is likely to generate 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rainfall in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC primarily during the PM hours.  Later in the week, much colder air pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures on Friday, Saturday and Sunday are likely to generally be held down in the 30's for highs.

1:00 PM | **Widespread Arctic blast crosses the nation next week**

1:00 PM | **Widespread Arctic blast crosses the nation next week**

You probably want to get your Christmas lights up this weekend if you haven't done so already. The month of November ended on a warm (and wet) note in the Mid-Atlantic region and December is starting off slightly colder-than-normal, but big changes will take place by late next week.  A widespread and very cold air mass is headed in Alaska this weekend where temperatures could plunge to 50 degrees below zero and then this very cold, dense Arctic air will dive into the western US early next week.  After that, the Arctic air mass will spread to the south and east across much of the nation and reach the Mid-Atlantic region around Thursday and then we’ll likely be in a a struggle to pass the freezing mark on Friday.

7:00 AM | Chilly, dry conditions for the weekend...Arctic blast arrives late next week

7:00 AM | Chilly, dry conditions for the weekend...Arctic blast arrives late next week

Colder air moved into the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and it’ll stick around right through the upcoming weekend.  High pressure building eastward from the Ohio Valley should keep us dry today, tomorrow and Sunday, but also quite chilly for early December.  By Sunday night and Monday, moisture will advance towards us from both the Deep South and the Great Lakes and it could result in some sleet or rain late at night into early Monday. More significant moisture could reach us on Tuesday which could result in another decent rainfall.  This same system is likely to produce additional beneficial rains for the south-central and southeast US before heading our way. Looking ahead, a widespread Arctic blast of colder-than-normal air will cross the nation next week and likely arrive here around Friday and it could be preceded by rain and a brief warmup.