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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:15 AM | *The greatest geomagnetic storm of the 20th Century…May 13-15, 1921…New York City/New York State were especially hard hit*

Paul Dorian

One of the most intense solar storms in recent years produced northern lights this past weekend much farther south than usual including in tropical regions such as Mexico and Puerto Rico. It was this same time of year when the most intense geomagnetic storm of the 20th Century took place during solar cycle 15 in a 3-day period from May 13-15 in 1921. That storm occurred before the widespread electrical dependence of infrastructure that we have in today’s world, but the impact from an extraordinarily powerful coronal mass ejection was still quite extensive.  The storm’s electrical current sparked a number of fires around the world including one near the Grand Central Terminal in New York City. In addition, auroras appeared throughout the eastern US creating brightly lit nighttime skies and telegraph service virtually stopped in its tracks due to blown fuses and damaged equipment. Research in recent years has suggested that this super solar storm of May 1921 was equally as intense as the granddaddy of all super storms in recorded history – the “Carrington Event of 1859”.

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7:00 AM | *Another unsettled week in the Tennessee Valley with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

An unsettled weather pattern will continue for much of the week across the Tennessee Valley. There will be a slow-moving low pressure system heading eastward from the Great Basin during the next few days and it will result in a chance of showers and storms on most days this week with locally heavy rain possible. High temperatures will range from the lower 70’s today to the low-to-mid 80’s by late in the week.

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7:00 AM | *Partial sun today...chance of showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow and tomorrow night...cooler and wet on Wednesday*

Paul Dorian

After a wet day to finish the weekend, it turns somewhat drier and milder today, but more unsettled weather is going to make a return. The chance of showers and storms will be on the increase from later tomorrow into tomorrow night and Wednesday promises to be a cool and wet day following the passage of a cool front. A warming trend will begin on Thursday to go along with a reduced chance of showers.

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6:45 AM | *More rain likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday and again at the end of the week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we begin the new work week, but unsettled weather is on the way back. Slow-moving low pressure will impact the region with showers from later tomorrow into Wednesday and then another low pressure system can result in another round of rain here from later Friday into Saturday. High pressure will move in for a brief appearance in between these two systems making for a partly sunny and comfortable day on Thursday.

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6:45 AM | *More rain likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday and again at the end of the week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we begin the new work week, but unsettled weather is on the way back. Slow-moving low pressure will impact the region with showers from later tomorrow into Wednesday and then another low pressure system can result in another round of rain here from later Friday into Saturday. High pressure will move in for a brief appearance in between these two systems making for a partly sunny and comfortable day on Thursday.

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6:45 AM | *More rain likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday and again at the end of the week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we begin the new work week, but unsettled weather is on the way back. Slow-moving low pressure will impact the region with showers from later tomorrow into Wednesday and then another low pressure system can result in another round of rain here from later Friday into Saturday. High pressure will move in for a brief appearance in between these two systems making for a partly sunny and comfortable day on Thursday.

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****Very large sunspot region unleashes five CMEs towards Earth…”severe” geomagnetic storm beginning tonight with auroras much farther south than usual...potential other impacts****

Paul Dorian

A very large sunspot region known officially as AR3664 has unleashed a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) towards Earth and a “severe” geomagnetic storm is a likelihood beginning as early as tonight and lasting into the weekend. According to NOAA, the first three of these CMEs could merge and arrive later tonight and early Saturday and two others will follow close behind. This is the first “severe” watch issued by NOAA in 19 years and the results could be auroras much farther south than usual and potentially, some impacts to communications and power grid-related infrastructure.

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7:00 AM | *A nice end to the work week and the weekend looks pretty decent across the Tennessee Valley*

Paul Dorian

Drier and more comfortable air has pushed into the Tennessee Valley on the heels of a late Thursday cool frontal passage. Today’s high temperatures should be some ten degrees lower than yesterday likely in the mid-to-upper 70’s with plenty of sunshine. It stays quite comfortable this weekend and quiet each day and the turns more unsettled and warmer early next week with the return of showers and thunderstorms.

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7:00 AM | *Unseasonably cool today with the chance of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

Another cool and unsettled day is coming to the Denver metro region with temperatures well below-normal for this time of year and the on-going chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are likely to peak this afternoon in the lower 50’s which is far below the normal for today of around 68 degrees. It turns milder this weekend with highs likely back up in the 60’s, but unsettled conditions remain with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.

One final note, there has been a lot of activity on the sun in recent days with a very large sunspot region known officially as AR3664 having unleashed as many as five coronal mass ejections towards Earth. One of the main ejections will arrive into Earth’s upper atmosphere on Saturday, May 11th, and it can spark geomagnetic storms as can a couple to follow close behind later this weekend. Watch for auroras as far south as Colorado during this weekend event which is being classified as a “category 4" geomagnetic storms…rarely seen in recent years.

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6:30 AM | *Unseasonably cool today with occasional showers...cool and unsettled weekend..."severe" weekend solar storm*

Paul Dorian

An upper-level trough will rotate over the Mid-Atlantic region today and it will be followed close behind by a second system that will keep it very unsettled around here right into Sunday, Mother’s Day. There will be occasional showers today and it will be unseasonably cool with an ocean flow of air keeping temperatures well below-normal for this time of year. It stays on the cool and unsettled side this weekend with temperatures likely confined to the middle 60’s for highs on both days and there will be the threat of showers from later tomorrow into the day on Sunday. High pressure takes over early next week and it’ll warm up on Monday with the return of sunshine.

One final note, there has been a lot of activity on the sun in recent days with a very large sunspot region known officially as AR3664 having unleashed as many as five coronal mass ejections towards Earth. One of the main ejections will arrive into Earth’s upper atmosphere on Saturday, May 11th, and it can spark geomagnetic storms as can a couple to follow close behind later this weekend. Watch for auroras as far south as Virginia during this weekend event which is being classified as a category 4 “severe” geomagnetic storm…rarely seen in recent years.

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