There will be a couple of frontal systems to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next few days and they will keep it somewhat unsettled around here, but it certainly shouldn't be as bad as it was last week. The normal high temperature in Philly for this time of year is right around 75 degrees and we’ll be slightly above that for much of the week. There are signs that the tropics will get active by the weekend and there may be a system headed towards Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The “official” start to the Atlantic Basin tropical season is June 1st.
Low pressures are riding along a stationary frontal boundary zone and they will spread more significant rainfall into the region from later tonight into Saturday. As a result, flooding is still a concern due to well-saturated grounds and flash flood watches continue in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. This same frontal system will push north later tomorrow as a warm front and this will lead to warmer weather conditions on Sunday and highs near the 80 degree mark. Elsewhere, it looks like the tropics will come to life in about a week or so with a possible system headed towards Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Our very wet weather pattern will continue into the weekend and localized flash flooding will become an increasing concern. The frontal system that moved through late Tuesday remains in close proximity and waves of low pressure will impact the region over the next few days. One low pressure system will push offshore later this afternoon and there can be a break in the rain early tonight. A stronger low pressure systems will impact us with steadier and heavier rain from late tonight into late Friday night. The stationary front that has stuck around this area will lift north as a warm front late Saturday and there is hope for some sunshine on Sunday with noticeably warmer conditions.
The grounds are already well saturated in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor after recent soaking rains and there is more significant rainfall on the way. As a result, localized flash flooding will become an increasing concern over the next few days as we’ll continue to get hit by rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, many spots in the I-95 corridor may receive 3-5 inches of rain between this afternoon and Saturday night and this is on top of all of the recent rainfall.
The cold front that passed through our region last night accompanied by showers and strong thunderstorms will stall out today just to the south and east of here. It’ll be noticeably cooler today behind the frontal system with temperatures confined to the 60’s most of the day. The close proximity of this same front over the next several days along with an influx of tropical moisture from the Southeast US will keep our very wet weather pattern in place into at least the weekend with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning and even a few tornadoes are likely late today/early tonight in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In addition to these particular weather threats, there are signs that “training” of thunderstorms may take place in some sections later tonight where multiple storms track over the same areas potentially leading to excessive rainfall amounts and localized significant flash flooding issues. Yesterday’s severe weather outbreak was focused in areas to the south of the PA/MD border, but today’s threat should be highest from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England. This overall very wet weather pattern looks like it will continue right into next week for much of the eastern third of the nation.
Severe thunderstorms are a late day/evening threat as a cool front approaches the area from the northwest. Any storm late today/early tonight can contain damaging wind gusts and hail and the rainfall with this system can produce flash flooding in some spots. Temperatures should soar today to summer-like levels in the upper 80’s following the passage of a warm frontal system and there will be higher humidity values as well. This front will stall just to our south tomorrow and remain in close proximity for the next several days resulting in additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms going into the early part of next week. In addition to the instability caused by the nearby frontal boundary zone, tropical moisture from the Southeast US will become intertwined in the overall weather pattern enhancing our chances for excessive rainfall amounts between now and early next week.
There will not be a drought anytime soon in the Mid-Atlantic region or even in much of the eastern third of the nation as a very wet pattern is unfolding for the next week or so that will likely result in excessive amounts of rainfall. There will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next several days and some of the storms that occur can be on the strong-to-severe side. In fact, there is a threat late today/early tonight for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the DC-to-Philly corridor and then another threat exists for late tomorrow. The main weather threat from today's expected thunderstorm activity will be damaging wind gusts; especially, in areas south of the PA/MD border. The frontal system that is contributing to a lot of the instability in this overall weather pattern will remain in close proximity through the upcoming weekend and into the early part of next week and, to add fuel to the fire, tropical moisture from the Southeast US will get involved.
Drought does not look like it will a concern anytime soon here in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, there very well may be serious concerns around here for flash flooding during the next several days as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are coming our way. One northward-moving frontal system will pass through our area by tomorrow as a warm front and then a southward-moving cold front will slide through tomorrow night. As a result, Tuesday will likely become summer-like with very humid conditions and temperatures in the 80’s and then a round of strong-to-severe thunderstorms may affect us late tomorrow/tomorrow night as the cold front arrives. That cold front will remain in close proximity for the rest of the week and upcoming weekend leading to additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. To add to the threat of excessive rainfall around here, tropical moisture from the Southeast US will push northward over the next few days and get intertwined with the overall weather pattern.
Earlier this year, we experienced a dramatic weekend temperature drop here in the I-95 corridor following the passage of a strong back door cold front that brought temperatures down from the 70’s to the 30’s in just a several hour period. Though perhaps not quite as dramatic, this upcoming weekend could very well feature a big change in temperatures between Saturday afternoon and Sunday following the passage of another back door cool front. In addition, the arrival of this back door cool front could result in severe thunderstorm activity late tomorrow into tomorrow night in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.